Rebecca Cruz Bitcoin is flexing its muscles again, climbing above $114,000 for the first time since early August. But don’t let the green candles fool you—this rally is running headfirst into a week packed with macro drama that could decide the next big move.
Key Points to Watch
1. Rate-Cut Drama Takes Center Stage
The European Central Bank is up first—expected to hold rates steady, but any surprise could rock markets.
The U.S. CPI print drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists see a modest rise, but with a nearly 1M jobs revision earlier this week, the pressure on the Fed to start cutting is growing.
Betting markets are leaning heavily toward action:
79% chance of a 25 bps cut this month (Polymarket).
Odds of a 50 bps cut jumped from 5.4% → 18% in just a week.
CME FedWatch: 92% odds of a 25 bps cut.
Translation: The market is bracing for the beginning of a rate-cut cycle—a tailwind for risk assets like crypto.
2. Crypto Flows Prove It
Spot Bitcoin & Ether ETFs raked in $928M in net inflows yesterday.
Investors are shifting: ETH had its outperformance run, but now money is flowing back into BTC.
Options traders are hedging ETH downside, loading up on puts while BTC feels “well positioned” for rate-cut season.
3. Macro Risks Still Loom
Analyst Jake Ostrovskis warns: stagflation fears (sticky inflation + slowing growth) could complicate the “rate cuts = easy rally” narrative.
Geopolitical flare-ups are also heating up—Russia violated Polish airspace, forcing NATO jets to scramble. Polish PM called it the closest to open conflict since WWII.
Gold is holding near record highs, and the BTC-to-gold ratio is approaching key resistance that historically signals a crypto bottom before the next major leg higher.
4. Technical Signals Flash Mixed Messages
S&P 500 futures are carving out a rising wedge—a bearish reversal pattern that often means buyers are tapped out.
If equities roll over, crypto could feel the weight.
Translation: Bitcoin may be testing $114K, but it’s skating on thin ice if stocks stumble.
5. Crypto Equities Snapshot
Mining stocks stole the spotlight:
Core Scientific (CORZ): +10.05%
Riot Platforms (RIOT): +7.82%
CleanSpark (CLSK): +3.72%
WGMI Miners ETF: +7.12%
On the flip side, majors like Coinbase (-1.08%) and Circle (-3.64%) dipped, showing the divergence between miners riding the BTC wave and exchanges cooling off.
6. Ethereum Stablecoin Boom
Stablecoin supply on Ethereum grew $14B in August—the biggest among all blockchains.
USDC, USDT, and USDe led the charge.
Reminder: Stablecoins are one of Ethereum’s clearest real-world use cases, cementing its dominance in this sector even as BTC steals the macro spotlight.
7. While You Slept
Figure IPO: Blockchain lender raised $788M at $25/share under ticker FIGR.
U.S. CPI whispers: August prices likely up 0.3% (gas, beef, coffee → thanks tariffs).
Avalanche Foundation: In talks to raise $1B for treasury vehicles, scooping discounted AVAX.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin crossing $114K shows traders are betting big on rate cuts. But between stagflation risks, stock market exhaustion, and rising geopolitical tensions, this rally could turn choppy fast.
Still, with ETF inflows booming, miners rallying, and Ethereum’s stablecoin dominance holding strong—the crypto market looks like it’s quietly preparing for the next major leg higher once the Fed makes its move.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards.
