Bitcoin is refusing to play ball with Wall Street’s expectations. Despite a disastrous U.S. jobs report in August that all but guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut, BTC remains capped below $112,000 — flashing warning signals for a deeper correction.

The Jobs Shock That Shook the Market

The August nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report was a stunner: just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000. To make matters worse, June and July’s job creation was revised down by 21,000, including a net loss of 13,000 jobs in June.

Nine major sectors, including manufacturing and construction, lost jobs.

Health services and leisure were the only bright spots.

The Kobeissi Letter bluntly called the data “absolutely insane,” saying it showed the labour market entering recession territory.

Markets immediately priced in aggressive Fed easing. A 100% chance of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting is now on the table, with growing odds of a 50-basis-point slash. Treasury yields fell, but Bitcoin didn’t bite.

Bitcoin’s Bearish Setup: The Double Top Breakdown

Bitcoin briefly spiked to $113,300 on Fed cut optimism, but the rally fizzled, sending the price back under the $112K neckline of a classic double top pattern.

A confirmed double top signals bearish reversal.

BTC is now trading around $110,851, below the Ichimoku cloud.

First key support: $101,700 (200-day SMA).

History rhymes: a similar breakdown in February triggered a slide to $75K.

Spectra Markets’ Brent Donnelly warned that the pattern’s confirmation keeps downside risks firmly in focus.

Treasury Yields Could Add Volatility

Bitcoin bulls typically cheer falling yields. But history suggests caution. In 2024, yields initially dipped after Fed cuts — then surged back higher by year-end, tightening financial conditions again.

ING analysts highlight that sticky inflation and fiscal spending could drive a repeat scenario this year.

If yields rebound after September’s cut, BTC could feel the heat once more.

Inflation Data Looms Large

Next week’s August CPI report may prove decisive. Wells Fargo projects:

Core CPI +0.3% month-over-month, 3.1% year-over-year.

Headline CPI +0.3% month-over-month, 2.9% year-over-year.

That stickiness in inflation could limit how far yields fall — and cap Bitcoin’s upside despite Fed easing.

Key Takeaways

Jobs Report Disaster: Just 22K jobs added in August, with major downward revisions.

Fed Pivot Incoming: 100% chance of September rate cut, but markets unsure how yields will react.

BTC Bearish Setup: Double top breakdown confirmed, key support at $101.7K.

Inflation Watch: August CPI data may dictate the next big move.

 For now, bad news is just bad news. Bitcoin’s inability to rally on Fed cut bets signals fragility — and a potential test of deeper support levels in the weeks ahead.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards.