Tom Kushner Bitcoin’s recent $60K crash may mark the halfway point of the bear market as analysts debate whether this correction signals a deeper downturn or the start of a new accumulation phase.
Bitcoin’s $60K Crash Tests Investor Conviction
Bitcoin has entered a critical phase following its steep fall to $59,930 last week, marking its lowest level since October 2024. The sudden correction has divided analysts over whether the market is halfway through the bear cycle or standing at the edge of recovery. According to Kaiko Research, the recent crash could represent the midpoint of a 12-month bearish stretch that historically follows Bitcoin’s halving events.
After months of euphoric post-halving trading and strong institutional inflows, the market has entered what Kaiko described as a “typical bear market transition.” Bitcoin’s price decline to $60,000 coincided with weakening onchain activity, signaling a slowdown in investor participation and market liquidity.
Falling Volumes and Futures Decline Reveal Bear Market Pressure
Kaiko’s data shows that aggregate spot trading volume across the ten leading centralized exchanges plunged by nearly 30%, dropping from around $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November. This steep reduction in activity reflects fading momentum and investor caution as Bitcoin consolidates below its recent highs.
Similarly, Bitcoin and Ether futures open interest has fallen from $29 billion to $25 billion within a week a 14% decline that Kaiko attributes to continued deleveraging. This pullback suggests that speculative positions are being unwound, creating conditions often seen in the middle of longer bearish cycles.
The 32% correction since the 2024 halving marks Bitcoin’s largest drawdown in over a year. Despite the pullback, analysts note that the overall structure of the four-year market cycle remains intact. However, the key question remains whether this drop represents a deeper retracement in line with historical cycles or merely a short-term reset.
Analysts Split on Whether $60,000 Marks Bitcoin’s Bottom
The $60,000 zone has taken on symbolic importance as it aligns closely with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average—a level that has historically served as a critical long-term support. For many investors, this range could mark the psychological floor of the current bear market.
However, not all analysts agree that the worst is over. According to Nansen Research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, the market may still face more turbulence as the crypto ecosystem lacks strong catalysts to trigger an immediate rebound. Sondergaard notes that while Bitcoin’s performance appears to fit the traditional four-year cycle narrative, confirmation of a sustainable bottom is still uncertain.
Kaiko’s research further indicates that the 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high remains “unusually shallow” compared to past bear markets, which typically see corrections between 60% and 68%. This suggests that a true bottom might lie between $40,000 and $50,000—levels that would more closely mirror historical drawdowns.
Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators Hint at Recovery Potential
While pessimism dominates headlines, some market participants believe the market is already stabilizing. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe argues that Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 marked a local bottom, pointing to extreme lows in investor sentiment and technical oversold signals.
According to MEXC Research’s chief analyst Shawn Young, oversold conditions across multiple timeframes suggest that a rebound may not be far off. “The discussion is not whether Bitcoin will recover but when,” Young explained, emphasizing that many of the catalysts that fueled Bitcoin’s earlier rally to $126,000 remain in play.
Key onchain indicators also support the possibility of recovery. Long-term holder accumulation has resumed, exchange reserves continue to decline, and miner selling pressure appears to be easing. These signals collectively indicate that large market participants may already be positioning for the next accumulation phase.
The Road Ahead: Navigating Bitcoin’s Mid-Cycle Uncertainty
The coming months are likely to test both retail and institutional investor resilience. Historically, Bitcoin’s mid-cycle corrections have been followed by long consolidation periods before fresh uptrends emerge. The current conditions suggest that while the market remains under pressure, the structural fundamentals of Bitcoin remain robust.
If the $60,000 level continues to hold as support, Bitcoin could be in the early stages of building a new base for its next cycle. However, a break below that zone could trigger a deeper retracement toward $50,000, aligning with Kaiko’s lower bound projection.
As the market recalibrates, traders are expected to closely monitor macroeconomic factors, liquidity flows, and the performance of risk assets. With the halving-driven supply squeeze still in effect and long-term adoption trends intact, Bitcoin’s broader trajectory may yet turn bullish once the current corrective phase concludes.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards.
