Paul Johnson Bitcoin bulls may be celebrating a recovery from Tuesday’s sharp dip, but on-chain signals suggest a rocky path ahead as short-term holders eye the $113,600 level for potential exits.
Key Points:
Resistance at $113.6K: Glassnode data shows the 3-month cost basis sits at $113,600, meaning many recent buyers are still underwater and could sell at breakeven.
Short-term stress: The 1-month cost basis stands even higher at $115,600, adding further selling pressure if BTC climbs into that zone.
ETF strength: Institutional flows remain a bright spot, with $81M into Bitcoin ETFs and $307M into Ether ETFs in the past 24 hours. Corporates and ETFs now absorb ~3,600 BTC daily, quadruple the miner supply.
Support at $107K: Should Bitcoin lose steam, $107,000 is the critical downside level, aligning with the six-month cost basis. A break below could trigger accelerated selling.
Market Sentiment
“Spot demand remains neutral, while perpetuals tilt bearish,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. He notes that a decisive break above $112,400 with volume could unlock targets between $114K and $116K, but without sustained momentum, bulls risk being trapped under cost-basis resistance.
Meanwhile, long-term confidence is building. Japanese firm Metaplanet announced plans to raise $881M to purchase nearly $837M worth of Bitcoin between September and October, bolstering the narrative of corporate accumulation.
Outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether bulls can overcome the $113.6K resistance wall before fresh sellers step in. Long-term, however, ETFs, corporates, and sovereign players continue to absorb supply, strengthening the bullish case for a broader upward cycle.
If Bitcoin clears $114K–$116K, the narrative flips bullish. But a slip back below $107K could bring a wave of fear-driven selling.
