Rebecca Cruz Citi Raises Stablecoin Market Cap Forecast
Citi has sharply increased its outlook for the stablecoin market cap, projecting the sector could expand to $1.9 trillion under its base case and potentially reach $4 trillion in a bull scenario by 2030. The revised figures mark an upgrade from earlier estimates of $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, reflecting accelerated growth in recent quarters.
The decision to raise forecasts follows a period of rapid adoption, with stablecoin issuance expanding significantly over the past six months. Citi’s analysts argue the trajectory demonstrates not only investor demand but also institutional recognition of stablecoins as critical infrastructure for the future of finance.
Regulatory Clarity Spurs Market Confidence
A major factor fueling the upward revision is regulatory progress in the United States. The passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act provided a clear legal framework for issuance, distribution, and oversight. This legislation is widely seen as the turning point that unlocked new supply, stabilized market conditions, and encouraged institutional participation.
By September 2025, stablecoins surpassed a market capitalization of $287 billion, according to data from RWA.XYZ. Analysts link this milestone directly to the GENIUS Act, which created a reliable foundation for issuers and users.
Other countries are now examining similar regulatory approaches, recognizing that consistent legal frameworks are essential to building confidence in stablecoin adoption.
Sovereign Governments Explore Stablecoins
Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as tools of economic policy. In the United States, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted their role in strengthening the reach of the dollar by extending its usability in global transactions. This perspective has become a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s strategy to secure US dominance in the digital asset sector.
China, once a strong critic of private cryptocurrencies, has shifted its stance. In August, officials began evaluating yuan-backed stablecoins for cross-border usage. The move signals Beijing’s recognition that stablecoins can enhance international trade competitiveness.
Shortly afterward, fintech company AnchorX introduced the first offshore yuan-backed stablecoin, designed exclusively for commercial cross-border applications. While the token is unavailable to Chinese domestic users, it underscores the government’s interest in leveraging stablecoins for global positioning without undermining domestic monetary control.
Stablecoins as a Complement to Banking, Not a Threat
While some banking industry leaders have expressed concerns that stablecoins could erode the role of traditional institutions, Citi analysts take a different view. They argue that stablecoins, alongside innovations such as tokenized deposits, enhance financial infrastructure rather than replace it.
According to Citi, stablecoins are not a disruptive force designed to dismantle banks but an enabling technology that broadens accessibility, increases efficiency, and fosters interoperability across systems. This analysis reframes stablecoins from a perceived threat to a complementary mechanism that modernizes financial services.
Key Drivers of Stablecoin Market Cap Growth
The path to a $4 trillion stablecoin market cap by 2030 is underpinned by several structural factors:
Legislative frameworks: Regulatory clarity reduces uncertainty for investors and issuers, enabling stablecoins to scale.
Government involvement: Sovereign issuance or endorsement strengthens legitimacy and broadens adoption.
Technological integration: Use of stablecoins within tokenized assets, payments, and settlement systems expands utility.
Global finance demand: Stablecoins provide a stable, efficient tool for trade, remittances, and decentralized applications.
Each of these elements reinforces the others, creating a compounding effect that accelerates overall market growth.
Outlook for the Next Decade
Citi’s bull case projection of a $4 trillion stablecoin market by 2030 illustrates the extent to which these assets are reshaping financial systems. Their role is expanding beyond crypto-native platforms into mainstream commerce, cross-border trade, and government policy.
The coming years will be defined by how nations and institutions position themselves. The US seeks to extend dollar hegemony through regulated stablecoins, while China experiments with yuan-based alternatives for international markets. Meanwhile, private issuers continue to innovate, bridging gaps in efficiency and access.
If adoption trends persist, stablecoins will emerge as a structural pillar of global finance, anchoring the digital economy with stability, scalability, and interoperability.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards.
